{
 "about": "Modeler lesson M7 (scenarios, Monte Carlo and global sensitivity). The toy is case file CF7's waiting load (assets/learn/data/cf7-cost-of-waiting.json, idea), with invented ranges around CF7's values: illustrative round numbers, one price level, no inflation. The reference block is written by node _tests/learn/test_m07-monte-carlo.js --write and checked by the same test on every run; the lab notebook (learn/notebooks/m07-monte-carlo.ipynb) asserts it.",
 "toy": {
  "title": "One large load waits for the grid",
  "note": "Illustrative round numbers, not the study's inputs, equations or results.",
  "loadMW": 100,
  "strandCap": 0.5,
  "tariffShare": 0,
  "bridge": false
 },
 "inputs": [
  {
   "key": "margin",
   "label": "Margin once connected",
   "short": "Margin",
   "unit": "$ per MW a month",
   "lo": 30000,
   "hi": 60000,
   "base": 45000,
   "why": "[[margin|Margin]] = revenue minus operating costs, lost for every month of waiting."
  },
  {
   "key": "capital",
   "label": "Capital ready and idle",
   "short": "Capital",
   "unit": "$",
   "lo": 400000000,
   "hi": 600000000,
   "base": 500000000,
   "why": "Buildings and equipment that sit idle; their [[carrying-cost|carrying cost]] is what the tied-up money would earn at the discount rate."
  },
  {
   "key": "rate",
   "label": "Discount rate",
   "short": "Discount rate",
   "unit": "a year",
   "lo": 0.06,
   "hi": 0.1,
   "base": 0.08,
   "why": "The yearly rate that turns future money into [[present-value|present value]]; it also sets the carrying cost."
  },
  {
   "key": "upgrade",
   "label": "Grid upgrades built for it",
   "short": "Upgrades",
   "unit": "$",
   "lo": 40000000,
   "hi": 80000000,
   "base": 60000000,
   "why": "Paid by other customers while the load waits; [[stranded-cost|stranded]] (left without the expected customer) if it never arrives."
  },
  {
   "key": "strand",
   "label": "Chance it never arrives",
   "short": "Never arrives",
   "unit": "percentage points a month",
   "lo": 0.0025,
   "hi": 0.0075,
   "base": 0.005,
   "why": "Added each month of waiting, not compounded: 24 months × 0.5 points = 12%, at most 50%."
  }
 ],
 "waits": [
  12,
  24,
  36
 ],
 "wait": 24,
 "runs": 1000,
 "seed": 7,
 "preview": 10,
 "near": 0.1,
 "repeats": {
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "sizes": [
   100,
   1000
  ]
 },
 "binWidth": 5000000,
 "budget": {
  "min": 100,
  "max": 300,
  "step": 5,
  "start": 200
 },
 "marginWidth": {
  "min": 1000,
  "max": 15000,
  "step": 1000,
  "start": 15000
 },
 "guess": [
  {
   "value": "175",
   "label": "About $175M: near the base"
  },
  {
   "value": "200",
   "label": "About $200M"
  },
  {
   "value": "235",
   "label": "About $235M: every input at its high-cost end"
  },
  {
   "value": "300",
   "label": "Over $300M"
  }
 ],
 "reference": {
  "about": "Written by node _tests/learn/test_m07-monte-carlo.js --write; recomputed by the same test on every run. Dollars are present values; shares are fractions of the runs.",
  "firstRuns": [
   {
    "margin": 31725.6664583297,
    "capital": 444350427.476363,
    "rate": 0.0995760681529064,
    "upgrade": 58758563.6825114,
    "strand": 0.00603376369038015
   },
   {
    "margin": 43786.6787079256,
    "capital": 464101346.490718,
    "rate": 0.0736980859632697,
    "upgrade": 71484663.5634732,
    "strand": 0.00386970021114917
   },
   {
    "margin": 46364.5196383679,
    "capital": 555391035.466688,
    "rate": 0.0929867364567146,
    "upgrade": 67206414.8791227,
    "strand": 0.00363322064609034
   }
  ],
  "base": {
   "12": {
    "dev": 88844897.3725,
    "rate": 7777777.77778
   },
   "24": {
    "dev": 171108691.236,
    "rate": 14732510.2881
   },
   "36": {
    "dev": 247278870.739,
    "rate": 20943453.7418
   }
  },
  "main": {
   "dev": {
    "p10": 140872315.095,
    "p50": 170250628.293,
    "p90": 200130251.091,
    "mean": 170998071.02,
    "min": 119997274.43,
    "max": 230195333.509
   },
   "rate": {
    "p10": 10173861.2924,
    "p50": 14455397.6687,
    "p90": 19753320.8299,
    "mean": 14729183.9401,
    "min": 7771656.94128,
    "max": 25379558.7048
   },
   "rhoDev": {
    "margin": 0.862881178881,
    "capital": 0.382994194994,
    "rate": 0.311676935677,
    "upgrade": 0.00956356556357,
    "strand": -0.0295294615295
   },
   "rhoRate": {
    "margin": -0.0346733146733,
    "capital": -0.00370165570166,
    "rate": 0.299162171162,
    "upgrade": 0.813744357744,
    "strand": 0.535591675592
   }
  },
  "corners": {
   "dev": [
    111799523.989,
    234719637.45
   ],
   "rate": [
    6536133.85546,
    25785123.9669
   ]
  },
  "preview": {
   "lhs": {
    "margin": 0,
    "rate": 0
   },
   "random": {
    "margin": 4,
    "rate": 3
   }
  },
  "budget": {
   "12": {
    "n": 0,
    "se": 0
   },
   "24": {
    "n": 101,
    "se": 0.00521536
   },
   "36": {
    "n": 929,
    "se": 0.00670506
   }
  },
  "p90se": {
   "100": 2337170,
   "1000": 654322,
   "1000random": 800116
  },
  "meanse": {
   "lhs": 31498.4,
   "random": 803059
  },
  "flip": {
   "half": 5000,
   "top": "capital",
   "rho": {
    "margin": 0.469271893272,
    "capital": 0.642922638923,
    "rate": 0.589693489693,
    "upgrade": 0.00621870621871,
    "strand": 0.011901995902
   }
  },
  "near": {
   "share": 0.1,
   "lo": 0,
   "hi": 2
  }
 }
}