{
 "about": "Lesson M10's settings. The hourly data are the course's 2025 SPP shapes in town_year.json (EIA-930); this file holds the clock, the split, the scale and the steps' choices. The reference block is written by node _tests/learn/test_m10-ml-forecasting.js --write and checked by the same test on every run; the lab notebook asserts it.",
 "peakMW": 54411,
 "peakSource": "SPP's 2025 peak hourly demand as reported to EIA-930 (assets/learn/data/04-forecasts.json, spp_peak_demand_mw; accessed 2 Nov 2026)",
 "clock": {
  "offsetStd": -6,
  "offsetDST": -5,
  "dstStartUTC": "2025-03-09T08:00:00Z",
  "dstEndUTC": "2025-11-02T07:00:00Z"
 },
 "split": {
  "train": [
   "2025-01-08",
   "2025-09-30"
  ],
  "val": [
   "2025-10-01",
   "2025-10-31"
  ],
  "test": [
   "2025-11-01",
   "2025-11-30"
  ]
 },
 "weeks": {
  "val": [
   "2025-10-13",
   "2025-10-19"
  ],
  "test": [
   "2025-11-24",
   "2025-11-30"
  ]
 },
 "horizons": [
  1,
  3,
  6,
  12,
  24
 ],
 "widths": [
  0.5,
  0.75,
  1,
  1.25,
  1.5,
  2
 ],
 "guess": [
  {
   "value": "persist",
   "label": "The latest hour, held flat"
  },
  {
   "value": "day",
   "label": "Same hour yesterday"
  },
  {
   "value": "week",
   "label": "Same hour last week"
  }
 ],
 "holiday": {
  "date": "2025-11-27",
  "name": "Thanksgiving Day"
 },
 "reference": {
  "about": "Written by node _tests/learn/test_m10-ml-forecasting.js --write; recomputed by the same test on every run. MW; shares are fractions of the hours.",
  "hours": {
   "train": 6383,
   "val": 744,
   "test": 721
  },
  "baselines": {
   "persist": {
    "val": 3185.968823,
    "test": 2148.442107
   },
   "day": {
    "val": 1126.17606,
    "test": 1070.334553
   },
   "week": {
    "val": 2231.655464,
    "test": 1477.096398
   }
  },
  "mixes": [
   [
    "week+last+wkend",
    1082.993376,
    981.0715218
   ],
   [
    "week+last+hour+wkend",
    1086.055919,
    951.2061487
   ],
   [
    "last+hour+wkend",
    1087.534148,
    986.631123
   ],
   [
    "week+wkend",
    1100.724695,
    1018.694858
   ],
   [
    "week+hour+wkend",
    1110.232875,
    1021.192804
   ],
   [
    "last+wkend",
    1113.359979,
    1027.489986
   ],
   [
    "week",
    1125.660418,
    1009.245276
   ],
   [
    "last+hour",
    1125.752145,
    987.1183388
   ],
   [
    "wkend",
    1125.939791,
    1062.651527
   ],
   [
    "week+hour",
    1128.971103,
    1005.268423
   ],
   [
    "week+last",
    1129.584845,
    988.7475077
   ],
   [
    "hour+wkend",
    1134.202403,
    1068.096451
   ],
   [
    "hour",
    1136.324469,
    1061.411755
   ],
   [
    "day",
    1143.665777,
    1067.997026
   ],
   [
    "week+last+hour",
    1146.812064,
    947.6121214
   ],
   [
    "last",
    1153.221399,
    1040.40644
   ]
  ],
  "bestWeights": [
   86.91857927,
   820.5238072,
   95.19896155,
   93.12812424,
   -1307.927175,
   -524.2604196
  ],
  "leaks": {
   "lag1": 670.2542815,
   "oracle": 821.5556363
  },
  "quantiles": [
   -3208.151137,
   -1801.291229,
   -1344.622907,
   -994.7775325,
   -780.0975336,
   -598.9895049,
   -444.6693989,
   -353.8798176,
   -269.1683438,
   -198.0788362,
   -27.35022515,
   87.86715912,
   216.7126286,
   359.1642719,
   553.8445384,
   904.6151044,
   1260.982058,
   1860.889193,
   2537.869068
  ],
  "band": {
   "cov80": 0.8307905687,
   "width80": 3662.180422,
   "pinball": 398.0801747
  },
  "worst": [
   [
    "2025-11-30",
    2725.913918
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-10",
    2593.464977
   ],
   [
    "2025-11-27",
    2115.777121
   ]
  ]
 }
}