Why does it take years to connect a power plant or a data center?

Walk a wind farm and a data center through their paths, watch one withdrawal ripple through a cluster, then price a three-year wait in three accounts

A6 of Energy Systems, Step by Step: follow a wind farm and a 300 MW data center through their paths to the grid; run a cluster study, see a withdrawal shift costs and add a restudy, test FERC Order 2023’s reforms, check what a substation can carry with one line out, and price a wait for the developer, other customers and society.
  • Analyst · L2
  • 25 min guided · about 30 min practice
  • After F8 and lesson 8

Two paths through the queue (Prairie Town, illustrative)

Step Ridge wind farm, 200 MW Data center campus, 300 MW
1 Request. Files an interconnection request in a 45-day window, with a study deposit based on its MW and control of 90% of its site. Request. Asks the utility for 300 MW of service. In ERCOT's 2026 batch study, a large load posts $50,000 per MW of security.
2 Cluster study. After a 60-day customer engagement window, a cluster study of every request in the window together: which lines each project would overload. Load study. Can the network carry 300 MW with any one line out (N−1)? Voltage and stability are checked too.
3 Upgrades and shares. Names the network upgrades and splits their cost by each project's impact on the overloaded line. Upgrades and who pays. A third line into the substation. The large-load tariff decides what the campus pays and what other customers carry.
4 Restudy. Projects whose share is too high withdraw; the rest are restudied and their shares change. Contract. A service contract: a minimum bill, a term and collateral, as lesson A4 sets them.
5 Agreement. Signs the interconnection agreement and posts a deposit of 20% of its network upgrade costs. Staged service. 200 MW fits on the two lines that exist; the last 100 MW waits for the third line.
6 Building. Builds the plant while the utility builds the upgrades; permits, equipment and crews set the pace. Building. The line and substation work. In this lesson the full 300 MW waits three years.
7 Operation. Starts commercial operation. For projects built in 2025, the median wait from request to here was over five years. Energized. Energization: power flows. What the wait cost, and whom, is step 9.

A cluster of four requests shares one upgrade (illustrative)

Request MW Flow on the line Study 1: share Study 2: share Most it would pay
Ridge wind farm 200 120 MW $215/kW $343/kW $420/kW
Mill Road solar farm 150 60 MW $143/kW $229/kW $250/kW
Depot battery 100 30 MW $107/kW $171/kW $200/kW
Placeholder request 250 125 MW $179/kW, withdraws gone $100/kW
  • Study 1. added flow 335 MW > headroom 160 MW, upgrade $120.0M needed. Withdraws: Placeholder.
  • Study 2, a restudy. added flow 210 MW > headroom 160 MW, upgrade $120.0M needed. Nobody withdraws.
  • In all. 2 studies, 300 days; Wind, Solar, Battery connect, 450 MW, with the $120.0M upgrade.
  • Order 2023's readiness rule. A request without site control cannot enter: 1 study, 150 days; Wind, Solar, Battery connect, 450 MW, with the $120.0M upgrade.
  • The data center. Two 350 MW lines feed the east substation, whose own peak is 150 MW. With one line out, the other carries it all, so only 200 MW of the 300 MW campus fits before a third line.
  • Texas. ERCOT's list of large loads seeking to connect totals 474.7 GW, against a record demand near 91.1 GW; at $50,000 per MW, the 300 MW campus would post $15.0M of security.
  • The money. Case file CF7's toy: a 100 MW load and invented round numbers. In present value, a 36-month wait costs the developer $247.3M, other customers $20.9M and society $0.0M.
  • Staged service. Half the load served at month 12: the developer's cost falls to $168.1M.
  • A faster connection. 12 months sooner is worth up to $76.2M to the developer.

With JavaScript on, you walk both paths step by step, run the cluster study, choose a withdrawal, test a reform, size the campus against the lines and price the wait yourself.

  • Illustrative. Prairie Town's four generator requests, the line and its upgrade, each request's flow and the most it would pay; the east substation and the 300 MW data center campus.
  • Restudies. Each restudy takes 150 days here, as long as a cluster study.
  • The toy's clock. It counts study days only; the real 45-day request and 60-day engagement windows come before the first study.
  • Real rules and numbers. FERC Order 2023's pro forma rules (MISO's summary, August 2023), Berkeley Lab's queue data (May 2026) and ERCOT's large-load numbers (July 2026), sourced below.
  • The money. Case file CF7's toy, unchanged: a 100 MW load and invented round numbers. Staged service is this lesson's addition to it.

About 25 guided minutes. Practice, about 30 more: the practice set under Check.

What you just did, as diagrams

Interconnection queue
The line of requests to connect to the grid; a request waits for studies, upgrades and an agreement before it can run.
Cluster study
Every request in a window is studied together, and the network upgrades they need are split by each one's impact on the overloaded line.
Withdrawals
When a request leaves, the others' shares change and they are restudied: in this lesson, 150 more days and the wind farm's share from $215 to $343 per kW.
N−1
A substation is planned to carry its load with any one line out, so two 350 MW lines serve 350 MW, not 700 MW.
Requested is not connected
Of the capacity that asked to connect in 2000–2020, 13% was operating by the end of 2025.
Three accounts
A wait costs the developer, other customers and society different amounts. A tariff reallocates the utility's costs; earlier service and bridge power change costs differently across the accounts.
Go deeper · AnalystSplitting an upgrade by impact

Each request \(i\) of \(m_i\) MW puts a share \(d_i\) of its output on the overloaded line, its distribution factor: an added flow of \(m_i d_i\) MW. An upgrade costing \(U\) is split in proportion:

\[\text{share}_i = U \, \frac{m_i d_i}{\sum_j m_j d_j}\]

  • The sum \(\sum_j m_j d_j\) adds the line flow of every project still in the study, \(j\) running over them.
Request MW Flow on the line Study 1 Study 2
Ridge wind farm 200 120 MW $43.0M $68.6M
Mill Road solar farm 150 60 MW $21.5M $34.3M
Depot battery 100 30 MW $10.7M $17.1M
Placeholder request 250 125 MW $44.8M withdrew
  • Per MW of flow. $120M ÷ 335 MW = $358,209 per MW of line flow in study 1; ÷ 210 MW = $571,429 per MW in study 2.
  • Per kW installed. The wind farm’s $43.0M ÷ (200 MW × 1,000 kW per MW) = $215 per kW.
  • Real rules. Order 2023’s pro forma uses a proportional-impact method for network upgrades, but shares a substation’s upgrades per request; study costs are split 10–50% per request and the rest by MW (MISO, slide 6).
  • Every project at full output is this toy’s single test; real studies test many conditions.
Go deeper · AnalystOrder 2023's reforms, with their pro forma numbers

FERC issued Order 2023 on 28 July 2023 (184 FERC ¶ 61,054). Its pro forma rules, as MISO summarised them:

Reform Pro forma detail
Cluster studies one study of all requests in a window: a 45-day request window, a 60-day customer engagement window, then a 150-day study, not counting facilities and affected-system studies
Site control 90% at the request, 100% by the facilities agreement stage
Deposits a study deposit by MW; at the agreement, 20% of the network upgrade costs
Withdrawal penalties they grow with the time of withdrawal, based on study or upgrade costs; exceptions, such as a 25% cost increase
Late studies penalties can apply after a 10-business-day grace period, capped at the study deposits, with exceptions: $1,000 a business day for a cluster study, $2,000 for a restudy, $2,500 for a facilities study; paid to the delayed cluster, not recovered through rates, not before the third cluster cycle
  • Grid operators adapt them in their own rules; ERCOT’s market is largely outside FERC’s rules.
  • Large loads follow their utility’s process, not Order 2023, which covers generators.
Go deeper · ModelerThe ledger's present values, and staged service

CF7’s toy discounts month by month, in three steps:

  • Monthly rate. \(i = (1+r)^{1/12} - 1\) with \(r\) = 8% a year: 0.643% a month.
  • Annuity factor. A cost \(c\) in each of \(\tau\) months is worth \(c \, A(\tau)\) today, with \(A(\tau) = \frac{1-(1+i)^{-\tau}}{i}\).
  • For 36 months, \(A(36) = 32.04\): 36 monthly costs are worth about 32 of them today.
  • Developer, 36 months: lost margin $144.2M plus the carrying cost of idle capital $103.1M: $247.3M.
  • Other customers: the upgrades’ carrying cost $12.4M plus expected stranded upgrades $8.6M: $20.9M.
  • \(L(t)\) is an account’s present value when the whole load waits \(t\) months.
  • Staged service. Every part of the toy grows in step with the load, its capital and its upgrades, so a share \(g\) connected at month \(a\) gives \(g\,L(a) + (1-g)\,L(\tau)\) in each account.
  • Half at month 12: $0.5 × $88.8M + 0.5 × $247.3M = $168.1M for the developer.
  • The most worth paying for a connection 12 months sooner is the cost it avoids: $247.3M − $171.1M = $76.2M, before other risks or costs.
Go deeperWhat this lesson leaves out
  • Affected-system studies, when a project also loads a neighbouring grid, and facilities studies of the equipment at the connection.
  • Many operating conditions: the toy tests one, every project at full output; real studies test peak and light load, and faults.
  • Voltage, short-circuit and stability limits, which can bind before a line's thermal limit.
  • Permits, land, supply chains and construction crews, which set much of the time after the agreement.
  • Why the most a project would pay is what it is: here it is simply given.
  • What a large load does to a whole grid's plants, prices and adequacy: capstone C2 connects one to the Plains Grid.

Check yourself

Myth or fact? “Most of the capacity that asks to connect ends up operating.”

  • Myth
  • Fact
Answer

Myth. Of the capacity that asked to connect in 2000–2020, 13% was operating by the end of 2025 and about 75% had withdrawn (Berkeley Lab).

Myth or fact? “A withdrawal only affects the project that leaves.”

  • Myth
  • Fact
Answer

Myth. In the toy, the placeholder's withdrawal raised the wind farm's share from $215 to $343 per kW and added a 150-day restudy. Order 2023 added withdrawal penalties for this reason.

Myth or fact? “A substation fed by two 350 MW lines can serve 700 MW.”

  • Myth
  • Fact
Answer

Myth. With one line out (N−1), the other must carry everything: 350 MW. With the east side's own 150 MW, only 200 MW of new load fits.

Myth or fact? “Large-load requests show how much new demand will arrive.”

  • Myth
  • Fact
Answer

Myth. Of ERCOT's 474.7 GW of large-load requests, 284.3 GW had no studies submitted and 5.9 GW were energized (June 2026). Requests can be duplicates or placeholders.

How long is a cluster study in Order 2023's pro forma rules?

  • 45 days
  • 150 days
  • One year
  • Five years
Answer

150 days, not counting facilities and affected-system studies. Before it come a 45-day request window and a 60-day customer engagement window.

In CF7's toy, a 36-month wait costs the developer $247.3M. Half the load is served at month 12 instead. What does the developer's cost become?

  • $247.3M
  • $168.1M
  • $123.6M
  • $0
Answer

$168.1M: half the load waits 12 months ($88.8M for the whole load) and half waits 36 ($247.3M), so half of each.

Practice · about 30 minutes on your own

  1. Split an upgrade by impact. A $120M upgrade is needed. Four requests put 120 MW, 60 MW, 30 MW, 125 MW of flow on the line. What does the 200 MW wind farm, with 120 MW of flow, pay?

    Answer

    $120M × 120 ÷ 335 = $43.0M, or $215/kW for its 200 MW.

  2. After a withdrawal. The 250 MW placeholder, which puts 125 MW of flow on the line, withdraws. Recompute the wind farm's share.

    Answer

    $120M × 120 ÷ 210 = $68.6M, or $343/kW: up $128/kW, and 150 more days of study.

  3. N−1 with stronger lines. Two 400 MW lines feed a substation whose own peak is 150 MW. How much new load fits before an upgrade?

    Answer

    With one line out, the other must carry everything: 400 − 150 = 250 MW.

  4. Security in Texas. At $50,000 per MW, what security does a 120 MW load post for ERCOT's batch study?

    Answer

    120 × $50,000 = $6.0M.

  5. Present value of a wait. In CF7's toy, lost margin is $4.5M a month, discounted at 8% a year, month by month. What is 36 months of it worth today?

    Answer

    $4.5M × 32.04 = $144.2M (the annuity factor for 36 months).

  6. What a faster queue is worth. Cut the wait from 36 to 24 months. What is the most the developer should pay for that?

    Answer

    Its cost falls from $247.3M to $171.1M: up to $76.2M, before other risks or costs.

  7. Read a claim critically. A headline says: “Texas needs 475 GW more power.” Name three questions you would ask.

    Answer

    Are these requests or signed loads? How many are duplicates or placeholders? By which year, and against a peak of about 91.1 GW?

  8. Match the reform. A cluster keeps losing placeholder requests after each study. Which Order 2023 rule aims at that?

    Answer

    Site control and study deposits at the request (readiness), backed by withdrawal penalties.

Numbers, sources and what’s next

Numbers to remember

Number What it means Source
over 5 years Median time from interconnection request to commercial operation for U.S. projects built in 2025, where data exist. Berkeley Lab, Queued Up: 2026 Edition · May 2026; data through 2025
13% Share of the capacity that asked to connect in 2000–2020 that was operating by the end of 2025; about 75% withdrew and 10% is still waiting. Berkeley Lab, Queued Up: 2026 Edition · May 2026; data through 2025
1,312 GW + 749 GW Generation and storage actively seeking interconnection in the U.S. at the end of 2025, in about 8,200 projects. Berkeley Lab, Queued Up: 2026 Edition · May 2026; data through 2025
150 days Length of a cluster study in FERC Order 2023's pro forma rules (issued 28 July 2023), after a 45-day request window and a 60-day customer engagement window; facilities and affected-system studies come on top, and restudies follow withdrawals. MISO, FERC Order No. 2023: An Initial Review, slides 3 and 5 · 8 August 2023
474.7 GW Large loads seeking to connect in ERCOT, with requested dates through 2033, about 90% of them data centers; ERCOT's highest demand so far is about 91.1 GW. ERCOT to the Texas Senate, slide 6; ERCOT demand records · requests as of June 2026; peak 91,134 MW on 22 July 2026, preliminary
$50,000 per MW Financial security a large load posts in ERCOT's first batch study, which is to give each project MW allocations year by year for 2028–2032. ERCOT to the Texas Senate, slides 3–5 · 29 July 2026

Keep going

Back to the course map

In the real world

A late connection has a price, and someone pays it.

A late grid connection costs the developer lost margin and carrying costs; ratepayers face utility carrying and stranding costs; society bears external costs.

The study keeps these present-value accounts separate.

The delay is treated as exogenous and parameters are illustrative; network feasibility is not modeled, and the social perspective is illustrated with a single bridge-power example.

Approved excerpt of: Li et al. (2026), accepted paper, 2026 North American Power Symposium (NAPS); DOI pending.

Holds when: the delay is given and the inputs are illustrative. Leaves out: why service is late.

This lesson is about that last part. The full case: case file CF7; open code with illustrative inputs: code-delayed-energization.

Sources and further reading

  • Rand, J., Cheyette, A., Talley, C., Zhang, S., Gorman, W., Wiser, R. H., Seel, J., Jeong, S. and Kahrl, F. (May 2026). Queued Up: 2026 Edition, Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2025. Berkeley Lab. Publication page.
  • MISO (8 August 2023). FERC Order No. 2023: An Initial Review (PDF). Issue date and citation, slide 3; the 45-day request window, the 60-day customer engagement window and the 150-day pro forma cluster study, slide 5; network upgrade costs by proportional impact, slide 6; site control, deposits and withdrawal penalties, slide 7; penalties for late studies, with their cap, grace period and exceptions, slide 8. Slides.
  • ERCOT (29 July 2026). ERCOT Update, Senate Committee on Business and Commerce (PDF). Batch study outputs, slide 3; milestones, slides 4–5; large-load requests, slide 6. Slides.
  • ERCOT. 2026 all-time and monthly demand records (updated 21 August 2026; values preliminary). Records page.
  • U.S. Secretary of Energy (2025). Letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the interconnection of large loads (PDF). 23 October 2025. Letter.
  • Li et al. (2026). Accepted paper on the cost of delayed grid energization for large loads, 2026 North American Power Symposium (NAPS), presented October 2026; DOI pending.
  • code-delayed-energization on GitHub, version 1.0.0 (30 October 2026): open code with illustrative inputs. Repository.

Spotted an error, or stuck? Write to hlli@ksu.edu. Corrections are made in place and dated here.

Text licensed CC BY 4.0, code MIT: teachers and students may reuse and adapt it, with credit to Honglin Li.